Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Appropriate real‐time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years as well as substantial increases in directional accuracy. Even greater MSPE reductions are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the US Energy Information Administration gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subsidiary staffing,cultural friction,and subsidiary performance: Evidence from Korean subsidiaries in 63 countries

Drawing from the notion of cultural friction and based on the agency theory rationalization of multinational enterprise (MNE) headquarter–subsidiary relationship, we examine the impact of cultural friction in foreign subsidiaries on subsidiary performance. We argue that cultural friction, arising due to a high presence of parent country nationals (PCNs) in culturally distant locations, has a detrimental effect on subsidiary performance. This effect is the strongest when the cultural friction is at the top management team (TMT) level and the weakest when friction is at the regular employee level. However, this relationship is contingent on factors that work as drags or lubricants for cultural friction between PCNs and host country nationals (HCNs). We identify governance mode and language differences between home and host countries as drag parameters and host country experience and subsidiary interdependence as lubricants that condition the effect of cultural friction on subsidiary performance. Empirical findings based on a longitudinal sample of 7,495 foreign subsidiary observations of 467 Korean MNEs in 63 countries during 1990–2014 provide robust support for our theoretical predictions.     

The prospect of decent work,decent industrial relations and decent social relations in China: towards a multi-level and multi-disciplinary approach

Abstract

Decent Work is a key initiative launched by the International Labour Organization in 1999. The initiative is to promote decent and productive employment with decent conditions of freedom, equality, security and human dignity. In reviewing academic literature on decent work, existing studies have been conducted primarily from a legal and political economic perspective. It is also largely situated outside any national industrial relations framework, both theoretically and practically. Decent work is an advocacy initiative of ILO, but the promotion of universal values embodied in the notion (e.g. equality, fairness, justice and dignity) needs to be tailored to specific societal contexts. Drawing on existing academic literature, this review article examines ideological, institutional and cultural distances between decent work and the reality of employment in China. It argues that achieving decent work requires an ideological transition of ‘traditional’ Chinese work ethics and a cultural transition from collectivism and altruism towards individualism and an emphasis on individual rights. This study also examines and highlights regulatory enforcement deficits and the inadequate role of the trade union in facilitating the advancement of decent work at various levels. Finally, the article argues that the study of decent work should be mainstreamed as an integral part of decent industrial relations and ultimately, decent social relations. It calls for a multi-level and multi-disciplinary approach to examining the historical, political, economic, ideological and cultural context of specific countries in fulfilling the ‘Decent Work’ agenda.     

The synergistic effect of insurance and banking sector activities on economic growth in Africa

It is widely understood that the insurance and banking sectors of every economy perform some functions in driving economic growth. What is not yet well documented is whether their roles are complimentary or substitutive. With the aid of the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique, this paper evaluates the synergistic effect of both sectors on economic growth in a panel of 10 African countries that are responsible for most of the activities in the continent’s financial sector. The insurance-banking-growth nexus was also examined through bootstrap panel causality tests. The results show that the life insurance market and the banking sector, as well as the non-life insurance market and the banking sector, are complimentary. We find that, overall, the relationship between the insurance and banking sectors in Africa is a complimentary one and that their synergistic impact on economic growth is positive. The feedback hypothesis was also confirmed in the relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth and between the banking sector and economic growth.     

Corporate Governance and Corporate Bond Liquidity

Using a unique dataset of corporate bond trading information and corporate governance evaluation scores, this study examines the determinants of corporate bond market liquidity in Korea. In particular, this study explores whether corporate governance performance of a company influences liquidity of bonds issued by the company. The paper reports three important findings. First, the issue size and age of bond are important determinants of bond liquidity. Second, liquidity of corporate bonds is influenced by changes in macroeconomic conditions. Third, and most importantly, better corporate governance increases liquidity of corporate bonds. This result suggests that corporate governance is an important determinant of bond liquidity, as it lowers transaction costs by improving transparency and reducing asymmetry of information. This paper contributes to the literature by providing new evidence that corporate governance performance is an important determinant of liquidity in corporate bond markets.     

Chaebol,Unions, and the Profitability of Korean Firms Before and After the Crisis

Before the 1997 crisis, Korean firms destroyed shareholder value and chronically produced nonperforming loans for financial institutions. In particular, chaebol‐affiliated and unionized firms did so, with lower profitability among the financially unsound firms. Chaebol and unions thus functioned as institutional devices whereby managers and workers undermined the interest of taxpayers as well as shareholders. After the crisis, firms no longer destroy shareholder value or produce nonperforming loans. Chaebol‐affiliated and unionized firms have higher profitability among the financially unsound firms. Chaebol and unions have thus ceased to function as institutional devices whereby managers and workers undermine the interest of shareholders and taxpayers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of host country Internet infrastructure on foreign expansion of Korean MNCs

This study examines the effect of host country Internet infrastructure on a multinational corporation (MNC) foreign expansion. Using Heckman’s selection model on a sample of 2589 subsidiaries of 487 Korean MNCs between 1990 and 2011, we find that host country Internet infrastructure is important in MNC expansion decisions. In addition, we find that a well-developed Internet infrastructure within a host country leads to more investments from MNCs producing consumer over industrial goods and is more attractive to domestic market followers than market leaders. We find that the host country’s Internet infrastructure is important for an MNC foreign expansion decision, suggesting that efficient communication within an MNC is critical in coordinating globalized MNC subsidiary operations.     

The moderating effect of place attachment on the relationship between festival quality and behavioral intentions

The main purpose of the study is to examine an impact of festival quality on behavioral intentions and investigate the role of place attachment (PA) as a moderator between festival quality and behavioral intentions. Data were collected from the visitors of the 2013 Seoul Lantern Festival in South Korea. Results show that festival quality has a significant direct impact on behavioral intentions to revisit, spread word of mouth (WOM), and engage in pro-environmental behavior. The study also reveals that PA moderates the effect of festival quality on behavioral intentions, suggesting the differential impact of festival quality based on the level of PA. The study suggests that festival organizers may want to focus on program and esthetics to promote visitors’ return and positive WOM. Festival organizers may also want to customize quality management strategies based on visitors’ level of PA.     

Employee well-being attribution and job change intentions: The moderating effect of task idiosyncratic deals

We developed and tested a research model in which employee well-being human resource (HR) attribution differentially influences the intention to change jobs across organizations (i.e., external job change intention) versus that within the same organization (i.e., internal job change intention). Furthermore, we posited that task idiosyncratic deals (I-deals) moderated the relationships between employee well-being HR attribution and external and internal job change intentions. Results indicated that employee well-being HR attribution was negatively related to external job change intention, but positively related to internal job change intention. Further, task I-deals significantly moderated the relationships between employee well-being HR attribution and external and internal job change intention. Specifically, employee well-being HR attribution played a less important role in reducing external job change intention when task I-deals were high rather than low. On the other hand, high task I-deals significantly strengthened the positive relationship between employee well-being HR attribution and internal job change intention. Our study extends the careers literature by differentiating the impact of employee well-being HR attribution on job change intentions within an organization compared with that across organizations and the important role of supervisors in enhancing or mitigating these effects.